Energy Market Risk Analysis – mid June 2012

October ’12 Annual dips below £47

October ’12 Annual, the key benchmark price for end-users, has slipped below £47/MWh over the last few days – its lowest level since April 2010 – although it is down little more than 50 pence since the start of this month. Short-term prices have weakened too, as consumption levels have eased back.

The price pressure on forward periods has come from further, albeit limited, softening in gas, coal and oil prices, as general energy demand projections are being reined in while the storm of global economic uncertainty continues to rage.

 

Prices shuffle lower

The closure of the main Interconnector for maintenance – curtailing exports, alongside warmer, drier weather – reducing consumption, has applied some downwards pressure to short-term prices over the last few days, knocking around 3 p/th off Day-ahead values. Longer-term prices are also lower, finally submitting to pressure from further price falls on the oil market.

October ’12 Annual gas has shuffled down towards 61 p/th, a new five-month low, while October ’13 Annual has also edged beneath 62 p/th, a new 15-month low.

 

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Energy price shift between 05 June 2012 and 17 June 2012

Elec: -0.42%

Gas: -0.49%

Coal: -2.23%

Oil: -1.36%
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