Energy Market Risk Analysis | early December 2012

Long-term still in limbo

Short-term UK power prices have risen and fallen – in the face of temperature swings and supply issues, while longer term prices have remained remarkably stable – despite some volatility in global energy markets.

April ’13 Annual UK power, for example, had remained wedged between £51.5-52/MWh, with most other Annuals similarly seeing prices move again by less than 50p over the last fortnight.


Short-term softens as cold fades

A chilly start to December pushed Day-ahead prices above 70 p/th for the first time since last February’s big freeze. But as soon as the weather turned milder prices began to slip, and not withstanding another brief blast of freezing weather in the second week of December when prices also rose, levels have continued to soften, easing beneath 66 p/th.

Near record levels of imports through the interconnectors with Belgium and the Netherlands have helped meet the cold-related demand, as Russian gas flows into the western Europe ramped up.

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Energy price shift between 03 December 2012 and 17 December 2012

Elec: -0.93%

Gas: -1.05%

Coal: -1.46%

Oil: -2.89%
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