Energy Market Risk Analysis | early November 2012

Mixed fortunes as carbon crashes

It has been a fortnight of mixed fortunes on the UK power market, with short-term prices falling, prices across the Winter months rising and Annual prices stable to slightly firmer.

At one stage April Annual ’13 and October Annual ’13 did edge back up towards the multi-month highs seen in mid-October (reaching £52.65/MWh and £54/MWh respectively), pushed higher by price rebounds across the whole energy complex – on coal, gas, oil, emissions and Continental electricity power markets. But a downwards correction in most of these markets in recent days has since led to some price erosion

 

Troll outage breaks Day-ahead calm

Day-ahead prices jumped on November 15th as the Troll C platform in the Norwegian North Sea was suddenly closed down following the discovery of corrosion in parts of its gas treatment equipment, although prices have already eased back a little as the impact on Norwegian flows has been less than initially anticipated.

The Troll issues ended an unusually calm fortnight for Day-ahead prices, which have largely been trading in a 1 p/th range either side of 64.5 p/th. This calmness has belied the fact that there have been some strong underlying shifts in supply and demand

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Energy price shift between 01 November 2012 and 15 November 2012

Elec: +0.49%

Gas: +1.24%

Coal: +3.21%

Oil: +0.25%
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