Energy Market Risk Analysis | early October 2012

Prices drop on economy jitters

The second half of September was characterised by weakness across most stock and energy markets, as Eurozone fears flared up again, singeing global economic optimism and growth forecasts once more.

Although prices started to recover and climb again by the end of the month, they still remain lower than where they were in mid-September – oil down by 4%, coal down by 3% and gas down by 2.5%.
April ’13 Annual UK power has similarly shed almost 2.5%, and is currently valued at £51/MWh, while October ’12 Annual went off the board at £48/MWh – prices for both settling


Stuttering restarts buoy short-term

The spluttering restart of several bits of infrastructure after maintenance has helped short-term prices remain generally firm, while longer term prices, conversely, have been falling for most of the last fortnight, before rebounding slightly over the last few days.

October ’12 Annual went off the board at just over 62 p/th, which represents a 3.5% drop since mid-September, and compares with highs and lows over the last year of 69.7 p/th and 59.6 p/th respectively.


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Energy price shift between 16 September 2012 and 03 October 2012

Elec: +1.21%

Gas: -1.28%

Coal: -2.93%

Oil: -4.26%
Other Annuals have seen similar price movements − all of them (out as far as April ’18 Annual) slipping and then
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