Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early September 2013

Syria fears halt downward price drift

The end of August saw longer-term UK power prices edge higher in line with the gas market in response to the rising threat of military conflict in Syria destabilising the Middle East and a surge in oil prices.
October ’13 Annual gained almost £1/MWh to near £52/MWh, while April ’14 Annual headed towards£53/WMh, before both notched lower as global support for Syrian intervention faltered.
Short-term prices, meanwhile, also rose in the last week of August, on the back of system tightness, with Day-ahead rallying from £46/MWh to almost £50/MWh before slumping.



Annuals edge up as oil jumps

Although fears of a military strike on Syria have had a strong effect on oil prices – driving them up as much as 6% in the last few days of August, they have had a much more muted effect on gas prices, driving Annuals up by just 1% over the same period, as the two markets remain largely decoupled.


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Energy price shift between 19 August 2013 and 02 September 2013

Elec: +0.9%

Gas: +0.55%

Coal: %

Oil: +3.21%


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