Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early December 2014

Market spikes on gas and cold

UK power prices across all periods saw prices spike in the second half of November, largely tracking a surge and slump on the gas market which was driven by Norwegian production disruptions and a sudden cold spell. Longer-term prices rallied by 5% and short-term prices by almost 14%, before retracing sharply.

April ‘15 Annual UK power has now shed almost all of the £2.3/MWh it gained during the upswing, with prices at the time of writing back beneath £50/MWh, while other Annuals have seen similar gains and losses.

 

Norway triple outage crimps supply

This November may well have overall been the warmest in nine years, with consumption at similar long-term lows, but prices still roared higher in the second half of November, as constrained Norwegian supplies ─ due to issues at three fields – and a cold spell conspired to drive short-term prices towards a nine-month high and Annual prices to a two-month high.

 

The previous market risk analysis for Early November


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