Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early May 2014

Prices ease: Day-ahead to 4-year low

While there has been further price turbulence on the forward UK power market over the last two weeks, much of it Ukraine-related, the level of choppiness has subsided, with most periods trending lower in recent days. At the same time Day-ahead prices have (briefly) touched four-year lows. A plentiful current UK gas supply scenario has provided much of the price pressure.
After a firm start to May, which saw October ’14 Annual push back up to £51.5/MWh on a flare-up in Ukrainian tensions and consequent gas rally, prices have staggered ever lower.

 

 

Market judders lower on good supply

Fresh long-term lows have been seen on Day-ahead and Month-ahead prices amid persistently strong supplies and low demand, while prices further forward have also eased but continue to be shored up by fears about Russian gas cuts and potential civil war in Ukraine.

As May started, most periods rose amid reports of increasingly violent clashes between government and pro-Russian militants in Ukraine, the deaths of 42 pro-separatists in a fire in Odessa and related pre-emptive buying ahead of the long weekend.

 

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Energy price shift between 02 April 2014 and 14 April 2014

Elec: +4.58%

Gas: +4.96%

Coal: +1.1%

Oil: +0.34%
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One Response to Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early May 2014

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