Energy Market Risk Analysis| Early November 2016

December breaks above £78/MWh

UK power prices have pushed higher again over the last fortnight, with values across the remainder of this Winter once more leading the gains, as supply fears were compounded by the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) formally requesting five nuclear plants shut down within the next three months for safety tests. Forecasts of colder weather and delays in the restart of gas withdrawals at the UK’s largest storage site, Rough, also played their bullish part.

Rough return delay boosts short-term

Short-term UK gas prices have been boosted over the last few days by news that the resumption of gas withdrawals from Rough, the UK’s largest storage site, will be delayed. Partial withdrawals from the site, which was fully shut down in June, were expected to start on November 1st, but just ahead of this Centrica Storage, which operates the site, announced that “preparatory works and reinstatement testing” were continuing, with these expected now to be completed in the second half of November.

Energy price shift between 13 October 2016 and 02 November 2016

Elec: +6.33%

Gas: +6.55%

Coal: +13.47%

Oil: -7.68%

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