Energy Market Risk Analysis| Early October 2016

Winter surges on French nuke woes

The supply panic that gripped the short-term UK power market in mid-September ─ propelling Day-ahead into triple digits for three days ─ has moved on… into the Winter, which has surged over the last few days amid reports that up to twelve nuclear plants in France may be forced to shut down for maintenance early or for extended periods as part of a safety probe into steam generation equipment.

Annuals rise jaggedly

Longer term UK gas prices have prices have rallied over the last fortnight, in a very jagged fashion, taking a strong cue from a volatile but firm oil market, while a leap in Winter UK power prices has also helped underpin discussion. Short-term UK gas prices have risen more steadily higher, boosted by Norwegian production outages and colder weather forecasts.

Energy price shift between 18 September 2016 and 02 October 2016

Elec: +0.21%

Gas: +6.26%

Coal: +6.75%

Oil: +6.02%

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