Energy Market Risk Analysis| Mid April 2016

Mixed but muted changes

Amidst what has continued to be an unusually stable period for UK power and gas prices overall, there have been some directional differences over the last fortnight, even amongst the Annuals, with nearer term Annuals slightly weaker while Annuals further out have risen.

Short-term prices hit 6-year lows

Short-term (Day-ahead) UK gas prices have dropped to almost 27 p/th in recent days – their lowest level since December 2009, helped by strong imports, while a healthy supply outlook has also weighed on prices out into next year. Future annuals have however been more buoyant, gaining some bolster from the oil market reaching a four-and-a-half month high, while the cancellation of several major future LNG projects also appears to have contributed.

Energy price shift between 03 April 2016 and 17 April 2016

Elec: -0.21%

Gas: -0.78%

Coal: +2.86%

Oil: +5.39%

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