Energy Market Risk Analysis| Mid November 2016

Winter turbulent; Annuals slide

UK power prices for the remainder of this winter have seen significant turbulence since the start of November, shunting up and down as supply nervousness has waxed and waned, while longer term prices have slid steadily lower, coming under pressure from weaker gas, oil and coal.

All periods drop as supply fears ease

After continuing to rally over the first couple of days of November, UK gas prices, across all periods, ran out of bullish steam and started to tumble. Since then, short-term prices have fallen by around 12% and Annuals by around 9%.

April ’17 Annual is now discussed just below 44.5 p/th – it had dropped more than 1 p/th below this but was given some uplift in mid-November by a slight rebound in oil prices as US oil inventory levels dropped and OPEC officials began a road-show to muster support for a production cut.

Energy price shift between 02 November 2016 and 16 November 2016

Elec: -10.8%

Gas: -11.97%

Coal: -7.67%

Oil: -4.11%

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