Energy Market Risk Analysis| Mid October 2016

Winter periods spike to 8-year high

UK power prices across the winter months surged further in early  October, as UK and European winter supply fears intensified, November breaking above £63/MWh, and Q1 ’17 above £62 ─ the highest month-ahead and quarter-ahead levels in almost 8 years.

Weak pound bolsters

The UK gas market was again only partly affected by another dramatic lurch higher in winter UK and European power prices in the first week of October ─ taking more of its steer from strong oil prices, a weakening pound and tight physical gas supplies.

Q1 ’17 UK gas, for example, rose 7.5% over the first week of the month, compared to a 16% jump in Q1 ’17 UK power prices.

Energy price shift between 02 October 2016 and 13 October 2016

Elec: +6.78%

Gas: +7.73%

Coal: +3.86%

Oil: +5.42%

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