Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early October 2017

Rally punctured; French jitters remain

Forward UK power prices dipped sharply mid-September, immediately after our last report, and then again as September ended, despite receiving a brief bullish shot in the arm on the 28th September when a French nuclear power station was suddenly shut down for urgent dike reinforcement work. Short-term UK power prices conversely rose sharply mid-September and have since meandered lower, a general improvement in wind levels and a drop in demand helping apply the pressure.

Annuals slip 5%; Day-ahead volatile

UK gas Annuals at the end of September were valued 5% down on the highs seen earlier in the month, with October ’17 Annual going off the board below 45 p/th, the weakness driven in part by a tumbling short-term market, which slumped as outages ended, LNG deliveries picked up and warmer and windier weather reduced demand.

Energy price shift between 17 September 2017 and 02 October 2017

Elec: -1.24%

Gas: -1.43%

Coal: -7.44%

Oil: +3.27%

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