Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early September 2017

New French nuke fears help bolster

August was a strongly bullish month for UK power and gas markets, with Winter ’17 UK power prices gaining 10% over the month – pushing over £50/MWh for the first time this year and lifting October ’17 Annual towards an eight-month high too, a new French nuclear safety review and shakier confidence in winter gas supplies both being major drivers. Short-term prices also gained, on tighter physical supply in the face of low solar and wind output.

Norway, LNG reductions spur rally

Norwegian supply issues – both ongoing and expected – have been a major bullish driver for all UK gas periods over the last few weeks, propelling them to six-month highs. A reduction in LNG deliveries and colder weather forecasts have also contributed.

Energy price shift between 01 August 2017 and 04 September 2017

Elec: +4.05%

Gas: +4.42%

Coal: +3.09%

Oil: -0.67%

 

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