Energy Market Risk Analysis | Mid October 2017

More French nuclear woes

A general rebound has been seen across UK power periods (and other European power markets) over the last fortnight, with new French nuclear concerns providing much of the upwards propulsion.

News that 20 French reactors are undergoing or will need to undergo pipe reinforcement work in their pumping stations to prevent “significant” safety risks in the event of an earthquake, was a key driver, although delayed restarts at several other French nuclear plants, protesters breaking into a power station to highlight the vulnerability of spent fuel rod stores to terrorist attacks, as well as the delayed shutdown of the Tricastin plant for dike reinforcement work, added to the “nuclear-nervous” mood.

Weather weighs on short-term

The UK gas market witnessed a bullish first week of October, as all periods rebounded from the general sell-off seen at the end of September, followed by a selectively bearish second week, with the shorter term market softening, largely on the back of predictions of much warmer weather, while longer term values continued to edge higher.

Day-ahead had climbed to its highest levels since February – over 48.5 p/th – just ahead of the weather change, as outages at multiple Norwegian facilities continued to keep supply tight.

Energy price shift between 02 October 2017 and 15 October 2017

Elec: -0.8%

Gas: +1.34%

Coal: +6.93%

Oil: -2.69%

 

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