Energy Market Risk Analysis | Mid July 2017

Mixed: more swings, more stability

The stark behavioural differences between the short and longer term markets seen during June have continued in July, with significant price volatility seen again on shorter-term contracts while the Annuals have been stable to marginally weaker.

US LNG arrives; 9½-month lows hit

Winter ’17, and October ’17 Annual in turn, have both hit nine-and-a-half lows over the last few days, with expectations of greater LNG imports and the emptying of the Rough storage site over the winter providing particular pressure, although a tumbling short-term market and some oil weakness also contributed. Short-term prices have also turned decisively bearish since the start of July in the face of robust production levels and imports, and weaker demand.
Energy price shift between 05 July 2017 and 16 July 2017

Elec: -0.73%

Gas: -1.41%

Coal: +1.2%

Oil: +1.85%

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