Energy Market Risk Analysis | Mid September 2017

Oct ’17 Annual over £47 for first time

Prices across the UK power market, after having dipped at the end of August, resumed their rally in the first half of September ─ with French nuclear concerns, relentless coal market gains, a carbon market surge and a gas supply squeeze all contributing.

October ’17 Annual has broken above £47/MWh for the first time since it started being discussed almost two-and-a-half years ago, while April ’18 Annual has nearly reached £46/MWh.

LNG dearth, Norway tightness persists

The same price drivers have been in play in September as were seen in late August – reduced Norwegian flows, negligible LNG arrivals and cold weather forecasts – all serving to push prices yet higher.

Day-ahead and October ’17 Annual, the key end-user benchmark, both broke above 47 p/th, while Month-ahead broke above 46 p/th – the highest levels for all of them since February.

Energy price shift between 04 September 2017 and 17 September 2017

Elec: +1.67%

Gas: +2.18%

Coal: +6.45%

Oil: +6.56%

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