Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early February 2018

All periods slump then rebound

While a strongly bearish trend was seen across UK power and gas markets for most of the second half of January ─ pushing the UK power annuals down by as much as 5% and short-term prices down by as much as 8% ─ levels partially rebounded at the end of the month and as February started, helped by colder forecasts and calls for urgent gas production curbs at one of Europe’s largest gas fields.

Colder forecasts end tumble

The weather and changeable forecasts have been a major driver of UK gas prices over the last fortnight – milder than normal and windy conditions weighing on levels for most of the time, before a fairly sudden and widespread shift to colder predictions among forecasters pulled levels up at the end of January. At the same time growing calls for new output reductions at Holland’s giant Groningen gas field have also contributed to some bullishness across forward periods over the last couple of days.

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