Energy Market Risk Analysis | Mid March 2018

Third surge grips markets

Just days after short-term UK gas and power markets had managed to recover and slump back from a historic price spike driven by Siberian weather sweeping through the UK, levels surged again on March 12th as forecasts for another bout of freezing weather, starting this weekend, became more certain. They then slumped as milder weather crimped demand in the face of strong supplies, before surging again just ahead of the coming “Arctic” weekend.

Extreme volatility continues

Extreme volatility has continued to be a feature of the short-term UK gas market, with three price surges now occurring since the start of March.

A day after the record short-term gas prices of March 1st ─ when Day-ahead and Within-day gas traded up to 275 p/th and 350 p/th respectively ─ prices crashed lower and within two days they had “normalised”, as The Big Thaw quickly followed The Big Freeze.

 

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