Energy Market Risk Analysis | Early December 2017

Day-ahead and Dec both breach £55

While the second half of November began with all UK power periods deflating – amid waning French nuclear concerns, warmer weather expectations and softer coal and oil markets, by the 20th of the month many levels were starting to move higher again. Further French restart delays at multiple nuclear plants and a sharp change in weather forecasts pushed the short-term market up in particular, with Day-ahead and Month-ahead UK prices both rallying above £55/MWh.

Market sways on weather changes

Changing weather and weather forecasts have had a major influence on UK gas market discussion over the last fortnight – with a cold snap at the end of November driving Day-ahead up to its highest level since early February, and pulling forward prices higher in turn, before a milder outlook started to apply pressure to prices from December onwards.

Day-ahead rose above 57 p/th, as gas demand surged to 350 mcm/day ─ 17% above seasonal norms.


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